If you own producing mineral rights and look at one of your paystubs, you may notice that the price your oil sold for is considerably different than the price of oil you hear quoted in the news. There are two primary reasons for this:
- Local oil pricing
- Royalty payments in arrears
Local Oil Prices v. WTI
The oil price scrolling along the bottom of your TV screen is the front-month futures contract for West Texas Intermediate Crude, or “WTI”. That is a mouth-full, so let’s unpack it.
WTI is the price that crude oil sells for in Cushing, OK. More precisely, it is the price paid in Cushing, OK for a specific type of oil produced in Texas that is to be delivered next month. There are numerous locations in the U.S. where varying types and qualities of oil are bought and sold. Quoting them all is impractical. Cushing, OK is a major hub where large amounts of oil trades, so WTI became the reference standard. The chart below from oilprice.com shows how many prices there are for Texas alone. At the time of this chart, the quoted WTI price was $13.77 per barrel.
This chart represents the “spot price” of oil. Spot price means the price paid for physical oil today. The discrepancy between WTI in this chart ($8.79) and quoted WTI ($13.77) is that the quoted price on the news represents oil to be delivered one-month in the future.
Variations in local oil quality, transportation costs and storage capacity cause discrepancies between WTI and the other oil types listed above. Collectively, these variables lead to what is referred to as price-differentials in the oil and gas industry. In other words, the difference between the price actually paid for oil and the benchmark price, WTI. For mineral owners, this means an increase in WTI price does not necessarily translate to increased royalty revenue, and vice-versa. As the above chart illustrates, local oil prices and WTI can vary wildly.
Payments in Arrears
Royalty payments are usually issued two or three months in arrears. This means the check you receive in April represents January or February production. Given its volatility, oil prices can vary significantly from month to month. Your April 2020 check, likely representing February 2020 production, will show something in the neighborhood of $50 oil. May 2020: closer to $30 per barrel. June 2020: around $10 per barrel or less (oof).
This lag often catches mineral owners off-guard. You may be watching the news and see a segment on a recent oil price crash, but then when you receive your next check, it is not that different from previous ones. This is because today’s oil prices won’t be reflected on your royalty checks for another two or three months. At that point, the news may be saying something entirely different about oil prices.
Summary
The oil price reflected on your paystub will never match the WTI price quoted on the news. The prices paid for local oil TODAY can be drastically different than the price paid for future oil from Texas. Additionally, royalties pay in arrears. This means the price on your paystub is the local oil price from 2-3 months ago.
I just received a substantial royalty check in April (4/15/2020); when will my checks start to feel the affect the recent oil crash? Will I have any negative prices on my paystub?
Royalty checks are usually two months in arrears. This means your April check likely reflected February production and oil prices. Oil was still above $50 in February, so you likely didn’t notice that significant of a dip. March is going to be a different story and will probably be around 50-60% of February’s oil price. April, on the other hand, is going to be ugly. Your oil price is likely going to be in or around single digits.
oil prices are a global inter-government collusion effort. prove me wrong.
Not going to be able to do that. There are valid arguments that oil prices should be controlled to some degree given the world’s dependence on it. I.E. the world NEEDs oil, so we need to incentivize people and companies to extract it. To do that, prices have to be above cost + a reasonable profit to justify the effort. Over time, the market should correct for over/under pricing, but until then the world still needs the oil to function so an argument could be made it should be manipulated/supported. In fact, this has generally happened. It get harder and harder as more and more countries become producers and need a massive amount of cooperation among countries that normally may not want to cooperate.